20.2%
Overall Moonshot Hit Rate (>100% return)
1 in 5 micro/small-cap biotech picks achieves moonshot status
Performance by Market Cap Tier
🚀 Micro-Cap (<$300M)
Moonshot Rate
24.3%
Average Return
+82.3%
Win Rate
76.5%
Risk/Reward
Highest
📈 Small-Cap ($300M-$2B)
Moonshot Rate
16.4%
Average Return
+68.9%
Win Rate
81.8%
Risk/Reward
Balanced
Key Performance Metrics
Historical Newsletter Performance
Detailed Performance Tracking
Track record of individual newsletter picks, sorted by date and outcome.
Coming Soon
Comprehensive tracking of all recommendations with entry/exit prices, hold periods, and realized returns.
Methodology
- Moonshot Definition: >100% return within 12 months of recommendation
- Training Data: 15,000+ SEC filings across 186 biotech companies (~85 filings per company average)
- Time Horizons: Multi-horizon transformer models (30d/90d/180d/365d) identify temporal patterns across deep filing history
- Risk Filtering: Rule-based catastrophic risk detection removes companies with trial failures, going concern warnings, clinical holds
- Catalyst Detection: Rule-based identification of breakthrough therapy designations, partnerships, FDA fast track status
- Information Coefficient: Spearman correlation between model predictions and realized returns (0.30 = strong predictive power)
- Focus: Micro-cap (<$300M) and small-cap ($300M-$2B) biotech companies only
- Pattern Recognition: Four key patterns identified - Buy the Dip, Aligned Bull, Slow Burn, Catalyst Convergence
⚠️ Important Disclaimer:
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Biotech investments carry significant risk including
total loss of capital. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered
investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor.